The future here, the future abroad

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gaijinfarmer
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The future here, the future abroad

Post by gaijinfarmer » Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:17 pm

So, some potentially scary things happening around the world. Brexit wipes out trillions in value, Trump worms his way into the white house and then insults China, prompting (perhaps) a small currency crash. Whichever way things go, this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Interesting article on the end of the American era:
http://motherboard.vice.com/en_uk/read/ ... t-collapse

How do you all see possible changes in the future affecting you?

Personally, I'm worried about the possibility of having to pull all my assets out of America and even renounce citizenship, if nationalism prompts enough changes that make life difficult for expats.

thoughts?

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Zasso Nouka
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Re: The future here, the future abroad

Post by Zasso Nouka » Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:44 am

An interesting read, thanks for sharing GaijinFarmer.

I do agree with the general gist of that article, in that The Donald will probably oversee a decline in US military power but don't think that will contribute to a total collapse in influence. American soft power will still have a massive influence on the rest of the world and even if it did collapse in the way prof Galtung predicts that might not be a disaster for the US. After all the UK lost an empire yet life still went on for everyone in the UK, we didn't collapse as a country.

In the short term it looks like Brexit could be a bit of a rocky ride but in another 10 years or so they will have sorted things out or be begging to rejoin Europe if it goes really bad but likely most people will still be employed and life will still go on. In the mean time sit back and try to view it as a piece of very dark improv comedy and that may well also be good advice for US expats looking at the impending Trumpocalypse. In another 4 years (or very very worst case scenario 8 years) when the electorate realise they've been duped once more by a dishonest politician and all the really great jobs he promised fail to materialise, they'll turf him out or he won't be able to run for a third term. Life will go on, the country will dust itself off and wonder why on earth they voted for such a clown. Either that or we'll all be living in a devastated post Armageddon nuclear wasteland :shifty:

As for our future here, we're all committed for the long ride I guess. Time to start perusing the sports stores for the proper Gate Ball mallet (is that the correct term ?) and honing your skills at that game of kings. Is nationality the thing that totally defines you as a person ? Would you still be you if you were to change it ? I'm not sure what other people think but I'd be willing to change my citizenship from one place to another and not feel that bothered. Once you've been here long enough it is going to make it a tad tricky returning to your previous country, what skills are you able to offer an employer when seeking a decent job ? How will you adapt to a society that has quite probably changed since you were last living there ? Will you adapt to starting your whole life over again ? And after long enough your previous homeland will almost seem like a foreign country.

Japan can be a pleasant place to live out the autumn of your life, health care is generally quite good and reasonably priced, Chu-Hi is easily available and again reasonably priced and there seems little shame in packing your recycling bags with empty cans, even cigarettes are pretty cheap if you like a smoke :). Japan would almost seem to be a country made for Ojiisan's and 'Baachans. So get yourself down to Sports Direct or whatever your nearest sports shop is and buy the best mallet you can :lol:

Seriously though what changes do your think are most likely with The Donald in the Whitehouse ? Do you think he'll totally get his way or do you think he'll be constrained by the power structures in place to stop a president from running amock ?

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Re: The future here, the future abroad

Post by Eric in Japan » Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:54 pm

Trump thoughts from another American:
0. Trump is not stupid, he is a genius. Is he evil or good remains to be seen. (personally I think evil and hope good)

1. (Scott Adams of "Dilbert" view) He played the public just because he could, no, scratch that, still CAN, and will eventually end up towards the center. We will all have 20/20 hindsight well after this happens.
2. (Trevor Noah of "The Daily Show", etc. view) He will start a war with China, build Muslim internment camps, re-institute segregation, and generally end the American dream as we know it.

Summary, I have no effing clue, other than history repeats itself.

Look to the Roman Empire, and compress it to account for technology and communications breakthroughs. Rome had a long ascension, and long decline. Things move a bit faster now. I'd rather miss repeating the Dark Ages though....

I do think that despite the worst predictions, life will go on. The US has so many resources, population, and area that even with crumbling infrastructure and awful leaders it will at least limp along.
"... so, the cucumbers said to the cabbage, `Lettuce Go.`"

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Re: The future here, the future abroad

Post by gonbechan » Sun Dec 11, 2016 1:43 pm

There is a small blessing though; I don't think he can play the violin, but on the other hand he does have other small things to fiddle with while Rome burns.

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Re: The future here, the future abroad

Post by Zasso Nouka » Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:16 am

What on earth are you implying Gonbechan ? :twisted:

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Re: The future here, the future abroad

Post by gonbechan » Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:18 am

erm

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Re: The future here, the future abroad

Post by gaijinfarmer » Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:59 am

I have no qualms about changing my nationality, but the option to have my retirement accounts in America is certainly appealing because they are potentially able to earn more interest than if I had the money in Japan. Retirement investing here, as far as I can tell, is a pretty depressing topic. Maybe someone can educate me further, but everyone seems to be treading the same path--investing in the national plan monthly, and perhaps growing a pension depending on their career choice.

What worries me more than just the passport I carry is the possibility of happiness into old age. I don't think that hanging out with a bunch of people who went to jr high together will be so fun for me; I don't really want to be the permanent outsider in a generally xenophobic country. Perhaps my new employment situation from January will give me a new perspective and new social possibilities.

What I would love is to have a final career move take me to another country, maybe Europe, where my daughter can attend college for a quality education. It's just a pipe dream and I realize that the grass is always greener, but that's what I'm thinking now...

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Re: The future here, the future abroad

Post by Zasso Nouka » Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:51 am

I don't think you'll have many worries over the economic future of the US and your investments there, it's too large to fail in any meaningful way. Trump may cause a few upsets and outrage but at the end of the day life will carry on. We all survived 8 years of Bush at the helm so this time it should be a breeze. US companies will continue to sell their products and people will carry on buying them and who knows maybe Trump will make America great again :shifty:

I don't know about your location but here life seems pretty sweet for the retired. Quite a few folk in the village hail from other parts of Japan and there is a good community vibe. Most older people seem to potter around on their hatake in the mornings or do some jobs around the house. The ladies have our village Kominkan to use as a rōjin club, they gather there to shoot the breeze, gossip, sing karaoke and do whatever older ladies do and the chaps gather in one of several widowers houses and drink sake or shochu till it's time to go home for dinner pleasantly inebriated. They don't get totally paralytic and seem to pace themselves through the afternoon but you can see them leaving in the early evening and everyone seems to have had a good laugh, they'll give you a cheery wave if you pass them and don't ever seem raucous or rowdy. We have a killer gateball team for those with a sporty inclination and during the winter there's a hunting group organised for those that want to participate. They shoot a few ducks in the village tanbo or go down to Minami Bosso to shoot boar. Seems like a fairly pleasant way to spend the autumn of your life.

Obviously everyone's ideas are different and what is good for one person might be hell for someone else but I must confess that after spending most of my 20's and 30's back packing around Asia I'm personally looking to take it easy and lead a more sedentary life in my retirement.

What draws you to Europe GaijinFarmer ?

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Re: The future here, the future abroad

Post by gaijinfarmer » Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:04 pm

Well to make a short list w/o too much elaboration:
-Free and quality college education
-Multilingualism
-Diversity, at least in that the countries are small and close together
-Western ideals (individualism, possibility of making a good future that's not chained to work)
-Western outlook on nature and activities (eg, nearly all Norwegians go outside on their days off, whereas nearly all Japanese loaf around inside)

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Re: The future here, the future abroad

Post by Zasso Nouka » Wed Dec 21, 2016 8:54 am

Unless you are a resident citizen many European countries now charge for University education and health care is no longer free to non resident citizens. Taking the UK as an example non resident UK citizens now have to pay for health care when returning home.

Also with the swings to the right politically Europe is becoming a less welcoming place to outsiders, it's not really bad yet but incidences of racial intolerance seem to be increasing. Hopefully this is just a temporary thing that will pass fairly quickly.

Can't say anything about Norway but in the cities in the UK there seem to be just as many folk that want to stay indoors or hit shopping malls on their days off. The countryside may well be different and have no idea what the percentages are like in other European countries.

But there are still plenty of fairly liberal places to settle that have a pleasant outlook on life and an easy going climate.

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