We're out of the Persephone months

Finding land, working a small plot or anything else countryside related
User avatar
Zasso Nouka
Tech Support
Tech Support
Posts: 5657
Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:37 am
Location: Chiba Prefecture
Has thanked: 4131 times
Been thanked: 3549 times

We're out of the Persephone months

Post by Zasso Nouka »

Well folks day length has finally edged over the 10 hour mark (today will be 10 hours and 2 minutes :D ) so we're out of the Persephone months and plant growth will get going again. As per usual don't expect any dramatic increases but things will slowly start improving.

Probably a good time to kick off the spring seeding thread again as it looks like temperatures will be rising slightly earlier this year thanks to last year's El Nino.

User avatar
gonbechan
Founder
Founder
Posts: 2518
Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:10 am
Has thanked: 2733 times
Been thanked: 1439 times

We're out of the Persephone months

Post by gonbechan »


User avatar
Zasso Nouka
Tech Support
Tech Support
Posts: 5657
Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:37 am
Location: Chiba Prefecture
Has thanked: 4131 times
Been thanked: 3549 times

We're out of the Persephone months

Post by Zasso Nouka »

That article says there's a good chance we might get an El Nina, would that cool things down a bit ? :pray:

User avatar
gonbechan
Founder
Founder
Posts: 2518
Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:10 am
Has thanked: 2733 times
Been thanked: 1439 times

We're out of the Persephone months

Post by gonbechan »

Zasso Nouka wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:17 am
That article says there's a good chance we might get an El Nina, would that cool things down a bit ? :pray:
yeah that would be nice... La Niña... but remember the three years preceding last summer were all La Niña.. I think there was a lack of rain?

User avatar
Zasso Nouka
Tech Support
Tech Support
Posts: 5657
Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:37 am
Location: Chiba Prefecture
Has thanked: 4131 times
Been thanked: 3549 times

We're out of the Persephone months

Post by Zasso Nouka »

I'd be more than willing to run some irrigation lines out if it means a slightly less hot summer, that lastone was intense. Would an El Ninã mean more or less typhoons?

User avatar
gonbechan
Founder
Founder
Posts: 2518
Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:10 am
Has thanked: 2733 times
Been thanked: 1439 times

We're out of the Persephone months

Post by gonbechan »

Its not that simple of course lol.. but yes

heres some science blurb.

El Niño

The main cyclogenesis region in the western North Pacific is influenced by interannual variations in the monsoon trough (Wu, et al., 2004). Due to the weakening of the Walker circulation system over the Pacific Ocean during El Niño conditions, the monsoon trough extends eastward from its usual position around 150°E to reach 170°E. This eastward displacement, coupled with increased SSTs in the central and eastern Pacific, results in an eastward shift in the main cyclogenesis region (Chu, 2004). In addition, Camargo et al. (2007) suggests that variations in several other environmental factors, including wind shear, vorticity, relative humidity, and potential intensity, also influence the genesis potential of typhoons throughout
the Pacific Basin during El Niño events.
During the late season of El Niño years, the subtropical ridge splits into two separate cells at approximately 130°E. As the genesis of typhoons shifts eastward during an El Nino event, the systems have an increased tendency to recurve away toward higher latitudes following the break in the subtropical ridge, which favors landfall along the Japanese archipelago and Korean peninsula (Elsner and Liu, 2003). Areas west of Japan tend to experience fewer typhoon impacts during El Niño years,particularly later in the season between September and November (Wu, et al., 2004).
The eastward shift in cyclogenesis during El Niño also increases the time and distance a typhoon travels over water before making landfall. Combining this effect with above average SSTs provides more energy for tropical cyclone development in El Niño years, and thus the potential to obtain greater intensities than in neutral ENSO conditions. By investigating the relationships between ENSO and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), Camargo and Sobel (2005) noted that there is a large tendency toward higher ACE during El Niño years. This increase in ACE tends to be concentrated in the region to the east of the Philippines and East China Sea.
The total number of recorded cyclone days is also markedly higher during El Niño years, although this is due to the increased travel time of tropical cyclones as opposed to a greater number of storms overall (Lander, 1994; Chu, 2004). Indeed the frequency of tropical cyclones formation within the entire western North Pacific Basin does not vary significantly from year to year, irrespective of ENSO conditions (Wang
and Chan, 2002).


La Niña

Contrastingly, during La Niña years, typhoon activity in the western North Pacific is directed by the strengthening of the Walker circulation and below average SSTs in the central and eastern Pacific. The monsoon trough retreats westward to 135°E and the subtropical ridge strengthens, shifting the main cyclogenesis region westward toward the Philippines and the South China Sea, and forcing the majority of tropical cyclones to track directly westward toward the Asian continent. This increases the landfall risk to southern China, the Philippines, and Vietnam relative to neutral years
(Wu et al., 2004). The reduced travel time and distance prior to landfall leads to fewer intense typhoons, but a larger number of cyclones with tropical storm intensity (Camargo and Sobel, 2005).
Many previous studies of the effects of ENSO on tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific have focused on the shift in cyclogenesis regions and tropical storm intensity. Few studies have explicitly investigated the impact of ENSO phases on tropical cyclone landfall patterns

User avatar
Zasso Nouka
Tech Support
Tech Support
Posts: 5657
Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:37 am
Location: Chiba Prefecture
Has thanked: 4131 times
Been thanked: 3549 times

We're out of the Persephone months

Post by Zasso Nouka »

Ok, I can see it's written in English but apart from that haven't the slightest idea what it says :doh: :oops:

Is it good or bad this year :lol:

Does La Niña mean less typhoons in Japan then ? :think:

User avatar
gonbechan
Founder
Founder
Posts: 2518
Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:10 am
Has thanked: 2733 times
Been thanked: 1439 times

We're out of the Persephone months

Post by gonbechan »

Zasso Nouka wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:12 pm
Ok, I can see it's written in English but apart from that haven't the slightest idea what it says :doh: :oops:

Is it good or bad this year :lol:

Does La Niña mean less typhoons in Japan then ? :think:
maybe.. for the most part...

el Niño = typhoon spend longer time trollopsing around on the water.. making them possibly stronger .. also makes it more likely they will turn right and go North East over Korea and or Japan... South East Asia gets more of a pass during el Niño... typically in general there are more typhoon in el Niño phase

la Niña = typhoon spend less time trollopsing around on open water .. making them possibly not stronger... also makes it likely they will not turn right and go North East but carry on trollopsing Westward .. where they will hit South East Asia and then the Asian continent.. (China)

But.. all bets are off with global warming i reckon.. so who knows

User avatar
Zasso Nouka
Tech Support
Tech Support
Posts: 5657
Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:37 am
Location: Chiba Prefecture
Has thanked: 4131 times
Been thanked: 3549 times

We're out of the Persephone months

Post by Zasso Nouka »

To paraphrase

la Niña = less typhoons and maybe less rain :happy-partydance:

:happy-wavemulticolor:

Sorry @Tora, maybe less surf.

But the reality is that's more of a likelihood that chiselled in stone certainty.

User avatar
gonbechan
Founder
Founder
Posts: 2518
Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:10 am
Has thanked: 2733 times
Been thanked: 1439 times

We're out of the Persephone months

Post by gonbechan »

Zasso Nouka wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2024 7:15 am
To paraphrase

la Niña = less typhoons and maybe less rain :happy-partydance:

:happy-wavemulticolor:

Sorry @Tora, maybe less surf.

But the reality is that's more of a likelihood that chiselled in stone certainty.
Let me fix it for you...
la Niña = less typhoons and maybe less rain FOR MAIN JAPAN (excluding the outlying islands)
and well no... @Tora gets both la Niña and el Niño being that he is closer to SEA than he is to main Japan.